Can Kevin Rudd Save the Australian Labor Party?

Last Friday I wrote a blog post on the speculation of a leadership change in the Australian Labor party and government, arguing that I think would be unwise for both the Labor party and the nation. I still stand to this argument, even as of last night Kevin Rudd returned to the leadership of the party and will become Prime Minister again.

At 7pm last night, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard seemed to have had enough on the months, if not years of speculation and criticism of her performance as the nations leader, and chose to call caucus vote to decide her future. To me, and I suspect many others that such a call would be risky, as Kevin Rudd seemed to have the numbers to regain power, and this was the case. Rudd won last nights ballet 57 votes to Gillard’s 45, ending a three year term as Prime Minister for Gillard, and her political career, which as promised she will retire after the next election.

I think that the events of last night were a shame for the labor party and the nation, as I think that Gillard as Prime Minister was doing an ok job. She might have introduced policies that many Australians were told (by Tony Abbott) not to like, for example the Carbon tax, but at least she was trying to improve education for future generations and help the disabled. Although she did lie on a few issues, every leader in politics has done and will do the same in the future, even john Howard would have lied, as to gain votes.

The reinstatement of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader and Prime Minister will not necessarily return the party to government. Even if some of the media speculation is true, that Rudd will reform some of the Gillard policies on the carbon tax, education reform and on boarder protection, the voters are now sick of the infighting taking place in the Labor party and may change their support. Rudd also has a hard task of rebuilding the party, as many senior Cabinet members have resigned as the result of last night's caucus, further destabilizing the party. This I think in the long term will affect the preferences for voters at the next election.

The next few weeks and months will be interesting, to see how Rudd’s return can turn around a 29 percent primary support, and lead a party to at least not a total wipe out as predicted. Hopefully Rudd can prevent a Liberal majority, but at this stage, this looks unlikely.   

Is Berlusconi's Political Career Over

It looks like the political career of former Italian Prime Minister and media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi might be at an end, after he was found guilty, and sentenced to a seven year jail term for having sex with an under age prostitute, and abusing his power when as Prime Minister. On top of this verdict, Berlusconi is also contesting two other cases of tax evasion and corruption charges.

The case has been a long drawn out affair, with Berlusconi and the girl denying that they had sex, even though she did attend many of Berlusconi’s so called ‘banga banga' parties at one of the tycoon’s villas. The verdict has been condemned by Berlusconi’s lawyer, who said after the trial, “"This is beyond reality," and "the judges even went beyond the prosecutors' request."  Although it seems if the reports are correct that with a long appeal process which is expected, he will probably never see the inside of a prison cell.

What gets me is how can a man like Berlusconi ever be elected as a nation's leader in the first place. He has been in and out of office for over 20 years, with many millions of Italians seeming to agree or just put up with the playboy antics of the billionaire media mogul. If any other Prime Minister or President in any other democratic nation behaved the way Berlusconi has, with all the extravagant parties and strippers, they would be condemned as immoral and unfit for office. But for some reason Berlusconi has got away with it for years, until now of course.

Although I do think that even with such a damaging verdict against the former Prime Minister, this may not be the last time we see him influencing Italian politics. This is not the first time that he has been found guilty of various crimes, and he seems to find his way past judicial rulings, through either appealing or using his status to escape prison time, and then reappear on the political stage.    

I do believe his return would be unwise.

Should there be a leadership change in the Australian Labor Government?

As the federal election in Australia gets closer, so does the speculation of a leadership change in the Labor government. Ever since the 2010 election, the media and the Liberal party has been on a long campaign of speculating that any moment now, Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be removed as leader of the Labor party and government to be replaced by previous Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. On a couple of occasions the reports have been true with Rudd challenging Gillard in  caucus meetings, but in both cases failed to regain the leadership, most recently been in March this year.

“There are no circumstances under which I will return to the leadership of the Australian Labor Party in the future.” - Kevin Rudd on Sunrise

As the federal parliament sits for the last few weeks before the September election, the media and other sources are jumping over hoops to declare that Gillard will be ousted as Prime Minister, although supporters of both Gillard and Rudd have been frantic at playing down any leadership challenge. On a morning show this morning  Kevin Rudd said “there are no circumstances under which I will return to the leadership of the Australian Labor Party in the future.” Hopefully this is an indication that there will be no challenge next week, as been predicted by the media.

I agree with Labor backbencher Gary Gray’s assessment of the situation, that Rudd and his supporters should contest the leadership or “shut up.” This whole talk and rumors are getting a little tiresome to me and I suspect to the rest of Australia. All that I want is a party to govern without waking up one morning with the news of a new Prime Minister, or constant reports that there might be a leadership challenge.

The last think that the embattled Labor government needs is a disruptive leadership change, just a few months before an election. I think that Gillard is performing as good of a job as Kevin Rudd could do if he was able to take over as leader, which is a little late now.

If the polls are correct, opposition leader Tony Abbott and his Liberal party are predicted to win the September election and any leadership change this close to the ballet would likely not affect the outcome. So perhaps, before Rudd and his supporters try going for the top job they should sit back and consider that any action will probably not reinstate the Labor as the governing party. The only way of a victory for the government is for all party members to concentrate on supporting Gillard as Prime Minister and coming up with sound policy, demonstrating that they can still offer a better future for Australia, rather then a government led by Tony Abbott. 

Iran Turning To A More Transparent Nuclear Plan

If the words of Hassan Rouhani, the newly elected Iranian President are true, the nuclear standoff between Iran and the international community looks to be turning a corner. Over the weekend, Rouhani announced at a post election press conference, that Iran needs to be more transparent with its nuclear program.  

Rouhani is seen as a moderate leader than his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who became a thorn to the international community’s actions to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While Rouhani stated that Iran will come to the negotiation table with the international community to solve the nuclear issue, he also said that Iran will not stop uranium enrichment, as the program is within the rules of the international framework.    

This re-engagement by President Rouhani is welcoming, that’s if the words will translate into actions. Although the international community cannot relax sanction or pressure on Iran just yet, until there are concrete efforts by the new government to convince that their nuclear program is for peaceful means only. I think to progress the stated willingness by President Rouhani, is for the 5+1 group (UNSC permanent five and Germany), to openly welcome a turning point in the relationship between Iran and the international community. 

The only resolution I can see of this issue, is not through military action (which has been the argument of Israel) but for peaceful negotiations, which will have to include the reality that Iran is entitled to a peaceful nuclear program. On Iran’s part, the stated transparency will hopefully consist of allowing International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to monitor the program. I do think this crisis can be resolved with more open dialogue from both Iran and the international community. And let’s hope for the people of Iran and the rest of the world, that this stand-off can be resolved soon, as we do not want another unnecessary conflict in an already volatile region.   

North Korea open for talks

Early last month I wrote a post on the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula,where North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un was destabilizing regional peace and security with rhetorical threats of invasion of the South and destruction of the United States presence in Asia. For more than a month, he was carrying out these threats by isolating the Communist regime further from the international community, by cutting communication links with the South and just being all out antagonistic towards the US and the rest of the world.

As I argued in my last post concerning the most recent crisis, these actions by the North Koreans is just another one in the line of many that have happened over the last few decades. Every time the Communist regime feels under pressure or scrutiny from the outside world, the leaders looked to release their own personal tension by defying calls for nuclear disarmament with testing of its nuclear capabilities. I cannot even count with all my fingers, how many times North Korea has gone down this path, with the status quo still intact.

So it seems my predictions were correct in the past few months. North Korea seems to be crumbling on the inside, as by one minute they are antagonizing the US and threatening the South, and the next minute, wanting to make peace. Small dog syndrome for attracting attention perhaps?  

Last week, the North Koreans, indicated that they are willing to reopen the Kaesong industrial park and reconnect communication lines with the South. To me, this indicates that the Communist regime and its leaders are in a desperate situation. On the one hand they feel threatened by the outside world and its capitalist ideology, but on the other their continuing self isolation is going to bring further hardship to its people, who surely are not going to sit back now and let the regime destroy their future.