Russia is taking on the West again and is winning: but for what?

The situation in Ukraine has become a major concern for Europe, if not the rest of the world. Russia, after over 20 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union is flexing both its diplomatic and military muscle in a region which they view as their sphere of influence. The last few months has shown the international community and more specifically Europe and to some extent the United States, that Russia has reemerged from its post Cold War slumber and it means business.

President Putin must be under the view that with Russia’s control of oil and gas supplies too many European countries that he has them wrapped around his little finger, and he would be correct. Even with sanctions against members of his regime, Putin has not backed down taking on Europe and the US, and currently seems to be winning. The European Union is divided on taking further, more aggressive action because of oil and gas, and the only thing that is preventing a full invasion by Russian forces is NATO. Although Ukraine is not a member of the organisation, many surrounding states are, and NATO is indicating, even without officially stating, that they are willing to intervene, militarily if necessary. Since March this year NATO aircraft have been patrolling and monitoring close to the Ukraine Border, and member states have been conducting training exercises in the region, including 600 US paratroopers. 

The current state of affairs in Ukraine, are indicating, that Russia acknowledges that although Europe and the US are looking weak over the situation in the region, that openly deploying Russian troops into Ukraine  will only strengthen and encourage stronger action by the EU and NATO. President Putin is playing a smart game of warfare, by supplying and encouraging pro-Russian rebels, even sending troops without insignia on their uniforms to assist, claiming, "It's all nonsense, there are no special units, special forces or instructors there,". The rest of the worlds of course dismiss this claim, as the rebels are well armed and trained.

I do not understand why Russia and more importantly Putin is staying on course with its actions in Ukraine. Putin speaks of protecting Russian speaking Ukrainians, but would he be still staying on course if Europe and the US were taking a more aggressive approach? I would say no. Does Putin want an all out civil war in Ukraine? Because as it stands it looks like becoming one, unless Russia backs away or Europe and the US take more active action against Russia.  

What a Mess in Crimea

The situation between Ukraine and Russia is becoming messier day by day. Both sides seem to not want to back down on their positions on the future of Crimea, but are causes not to inflame into all out conflict, which would not benefit either country. The issues that have deepened the ongoing political divide has turned from Ukraine removing its former pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in February, to an almost invasion of Crimea, a sovereign area of Ukraine by Russian forces and more recently a referendum on the future of the Crimean peninsula.

The referendum held on Sunday was a convincing coup for Moscow with almost 98 percent of the 1.8 million eligible voters deciding to break away from Ukraine and rejoin the Russian Federation. The only problem now is that Ukraine and its western supporters have declaired the referendum and outcome as illegal and that the international community will not recognise a independent Crimea or reunification with Russia.

Since Sundays vote, the United States and the European Union have placed economic sanctions on a number of key politicians and other individuals from both the Ukraine and Russia, in a bid to punish and put pressure on Moscow. In a statment from the White House which stated, "Today's actions send a strong message to the Russian government that there are consequences for their actions that violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including their actions supporting the illegal referendum for Crimean separation.'' All is well that sanctions have been placed on some Russian politicians, but there effects on resolving the political and military stalemate I think will not succeed. Although some key members of Russian politics have been targeted, the major decision makers in Moscow including President Putin have not been punished. These sanction, I think are just a token gesture of support for Ukraine and a limited act in a changing global power shift. The US and it European allies have shown how powerless they are in resolving the situation in the Ukraine and Russia know that their actions will probably not face any major consequences.

As to date, the people of Crimea have decided that they want to be part of Russia, and Moscow supports this action. From the view of the international community, I think that they are not in a position to confront Russia or prevent Crimea from gaining its independence. At this stage, to much is at stack for many European states who have economic and political interests in Russia and would likely prevent any further action other then what is in place.

I think that the only way to resolve the current situation is for the international community and Ukraine to allow Crimea to break away from, as been decided by majority of the population. Although western government will need to booster support for Kiev in a bid to strengthen the economic and political relationship between Europe and Ukraine. Where for the best interest of Russia, they should take the vote on Sunday as a victory and remove all its military forces, as well as stop meddling in Ukraine's politics.

What a Shambles the Sochi Games have become

Only a few more days till the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, with thousands of athletes and spectators arriving in mass to compete and watch the games, that have been criticized by many, both in Russia and globally.

These games have been reported to have cost around 30 billion pounds, although the exact amount has not been officially released by the organizers. If it’s true, the games in Sochi would be by far the most costly; even three times the amount London paid to host the 2012 summer games. That is a lot of money for a country that is still trying to develop into an economic powerhouse, where large sections of the population still live in conditions much like in the old Soviet days.

Apart from the huge cost of holding the games, reports of corruption and abuse against the tens of thousands of foreign workers brought into construct the venues for the games has shown the world what a shambles these games have become. Some of the International Olympic Committee and others have concerns that billions have been pocketed by developers close to President Putin and other key officials. On top of the reported corruption, abuse and non payment of foreign workers have highlighted the lack of respect for human rights that Russian officials and game organizers have.

The number one concern just days till the event kicks off is the threat of a terrorist attack, from a number of possible groups or individuals with grievances against the Russian state. At this event Al-Qaeda are not of concern, but more home grown terrorist threats are. Sochi is only a few thousand miles away from the Chechen border, where Russia has been fighting a brutal guerrilla war against separatist rebels for a number of decades. Various groups from Chechnya and others have threatened to target Sochi and the games. Earlier bombings in other cities nearby in December and January have shown what threat these games are under, even with such a large security presence.

President Putin and the organizers can not take all the blame, the IOC has also some criticisms concerning how bidding cities and countries are granted hosting rights. I do wonder at times how certain cities and countries are selected to hold major sporting events. Much like FIFA’s granting of the 2022 World Cup to Qatar (a country with a bad human rights record, especially against foreign workers, and weather conditions not suited to holding a football event during a northern summer), Sochi is also a bad choose for holding a Winter Olympic games. As mentioned earlier, Russia does not have a good human rights record, corruption has been rife through out the seven years since been granted the games, there are major security concerns due to the close proximity to the Chechen border, and on top of this there is not enough snow fall in Sochi, compared to past winter Olympics.

This is not the first Olympics that the IOC has granted to a county been accused of major human rights abuses and perceived inability to stage an international sporting event. In 2001, the IOC granted the 2008 summer games to Beijing, China, for the first time in its history. Although, the games went without any major security or other incidents, except for the pro Tibetan protests during the Olympic flame relay, the games were some what overshadowed by China’s bad human rights record, corruption during the organization of the games, and restrictions placed on  the international press and spectators.

Perhaps the IOC and other international sporting associations should consider more carefully which cities and countries will host major sporting events in the future. I do acknowledge that all courtiers have the rights to hosting these events, not just a select few, but stricter criteria perhaps should be placed on a bidding nation. I think that this would further encourage perspective countries to address issues of security, human rights and corruption concerns, which many of the recent major sporting events have experienced.       

The international community will probably never know the exact  extent of corruption or human rights abuses, but already the Sochi games have shown what a shambles they have become and show signs of continuing on this path, although I do hope for the athletes sack, who have been preparing for four years, and travelling spectators that all goes well.

Ukraine would benefit more if it signed the European Union agreement

Since November 2013, the Ukrainian capital Kiev and other city across the country have become almost war zones with hundreds and thousands of people protesting against President Viktor Yanukovych and his government. In more recent protests, a number of people have been shot by security forces, with many police and other protesters been injured.

The reason for large parts of the Ukrainian population rallying against  Mr Yanukovych and his government, is over his decision last November to join the Russian customs union rather than sign a European Union  partnership agreement been negotiated over the last few years. It seems many people in Ukraine wanted the country and its leaders to become closer to the EU block, rather than with their former Cold War allies Russia.

If Ukraine had signed the EU agreement, it would have, in my opinion, had a much brighter future, and would have opened up more opportunities to integrate with the rest of Europe and the international community. Now the deal with Russia will further isolate the former Soviet state, and weaken its economy even further. Although Russia has offered a range of economic sweeteners, from debt relief and investment, in the long run the deal will probably benefit Russia, rather than help develop Ukraine and its economy.

Putin’s plans for a re-emergent Russia on the international stage became a step closer with this deal with Ukraine, the largest and most populous nation from the former communist block. Keeping Ukraine and other former Soviet countries like Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia within its sphere of influence has become an important priority for Putin and the Russian state, with counter negotiations for these countries to join its own customs union. Armenia, for example, has rejected the EU deal and has signed on to the Russian customs union, with Moldova and Georgia still negotiating with the EU on a similar partnership agreement rejected by Ukraine.

Let’s hope that other former Soviet states look beyond pressure from Russia, and sign up to the EU agreement, which will benefit their economies and people in the long term, rather then any deal that Russia can offer.                 

China needs to stop its Provocative Campaign in the East and South China Sea

Over the last couple of months there has been increasing tensions in the East China Sea between China, Japan, South Korea and the United States, along with  other countries in the region. The main issues are the growing rise of China as the new top dog in the region and a long standing dispute over a group of islands called Senkaku/Diaoyu which belong to Japan, but are claimed by a handful of other countries including China. Although the current crisis is over a tiny group of uninhabited islands that lay on top of gas and oil deposits, the main issue of concern not just to the region but also the international community is the rising power of China, who are on a campaign to flex its military and economic muscle.

The most recent example of China’s military and diplomatic flexing has been in the last few months, when they installed a Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the disputed islands, and which overlaps Japan’s own ADIZ. This action by China requires all commercial and military aircraft to identify themselves with Chinese authorities when passing through this zone, but the US, Japan and other countries have rejected these requests and have conducted military flights in the area. Not much has been mentioned in recent weeks concerning the ADZ, and no reports of incidents over the matter.

Apart from the ADZ issue, the US and China navy ships have come close to colliding with each other in the South China Sea, near another group of disputed islands. Both countries have released statements blaming the other for the near miss, with the US saying that the Chinese ship was being aggressive towards their vessel which was in international water and the Chinese stating that the US ship was harassing the new Chinese aircraft carrier, as it was carrying out exercises. 

 On the matter of the dispute in the East China Sea, my understanding is that the Senkaku islands are a sovereign territory of Japan, as they were owned by a Japanese family for many centuries, and have recently been transferred to the Japanese state. I am not a lawyer, but one would think that international law would under this argument grant full sovereignty to Japan. Except no international organisation or country wants to deliberate on sovereignty rights, so this issue will drag on into the future.

The US has been dragged into the crisis, though quite willingly on the side of Japan, as they are allies, and also they want to keep a check on China’s new aggressive stance in the region. The US since the end of the second world war have been the main military force protecting its own national interests and its allies in the region, but since the rising economic and military power of China over the last couple of decades, the US has seen its status as the regions and even the worlds only superpower decline. China at the present acknowledge this change in the status que and have been taking advantage of a weaker US role in Asia and the rest of the world, but continuing in a campaign  of  provocative action against its neighbors will not advance stability in the region or win international support.

The Republic of Congo is slowly gaining Peace and Stability

The Democratic Republic of the Congo, a landlocked country in central Africa is slowly gaining peace, after various civil conflicts over the last few decades. In the last couple of days the government of Congo signed a peace agreement with the M23 rebel group, after their defeat by government and United Nations forces in November. This agreement has formally disbanded the M23 as an armed force.

The M23 is just one of 30 or more different armed groups in Congo, but have been the most active in recent years. The M23 are mostly ethnic Tutsis, the same as the government in Rwanda, who have been accused of funding and supporting the group.

The issue in Congo is its large deposits of natural resources and over 200 different ethnic groups competing for power and claim to the countries riches. What has materialized since the countries independence from Belgium in the 1960’s has been numerous corrupt governments, warlords and outside interference that has led to armed conflict. Although most of the fighting ceased in the early 2000’s, there are still large numbers of groups fighting against the government and each other. Also fleeing Hutus from the 1994 Rwandan genocide have added to the problems in the Congo.  

The UN has deployed around 20,000peacekeepers since the late 1990’s in an effort to bring peace to the war torn country, but with so many different groups and interferences from outside, the task has been difficult, although there has been some successful achievements,and the latest peace agreement been one of them.

Although there are still many problems for the Congolese to deal with, including trying to bring long term peace, fighting corruption and bring about equality and development, the country has the potential to gain future peace and stability. The first elected government for over four decades in 2008 and the continuing presence of  a large UN deployment, which have been given a new mandate to use force to protect civilians, the long term goals could be achieved if the status que remains the same and further peace agreements can be signed between the government and other armed groups.

Breaking news: Nelson Mandela Dead

After years of illness, Nelson Mandela has passed away in his family home surrounded by family.

President Jacob Zuma has said in a press conference:"Our nation has lost its great son"

The world has lost a great man.

Read further on BBC: South Africa's Nelson Mandela Dies | BBC News

Mandela was a great leader of not just the black population in South Africa, but also other oppressed peoples around the world. His ability to keep faith and dignity in the face of extreme torment and repression was the strength that he upheld for many decades and will be honoured for centuries to come. The ability to look beyond hatred and revenge for decades of suffering of his fellow people under Apartheid, showed what a inspirational leader and person that Mandela was. Hopefully his legacy will keep inspiring people to stand up for their own freedoms and justice, through peace and love, rather then war and violence. Good bye and Rest in Peace Nelson Mandela.